I have made a list of 12 tips to win more AFL bets as I have been a frequent AFL bettor for years now and I thought I would share some tips that I have learnt from my experiences so you don’t make some of the mistakes that I made early on.
Betting on the AFL can be fun and profitable but make sure you are focussing on the right areas.
Get the best odds
Make sure you shop around for the best odds, this can be the difference of being a winning bettor or a big loser. Small edges are needed to be profitable at betting on sports so a difference of 8-1 vs 12-1 can be significant. Be sure to open a few betting accounts with different bookmakers to ensure that you are getting the right price.
I have noticed in my experiences that some bookies have better odds on favourites while others will have better odds on the underdogs. I personally have a betting account with all of the bookmakers available so before placing a bet I can have a look through them all to make sure the odds I’m getting is the best out there
Be sure to check out our reviews to look at what Australian sports betting sites are out there and find the bookies that you do not have accounts with.
Take advantage of promotions
This is an added bonus to give you more of a chance of success. Bookmakers are very competitive and can sometimes offer large promo offers to customers to keep their business for the long term. These could be through reload bonuses if a customer deposits more money into their account they could offer them $200 in bonus bets or more. This is another reason to make sure that you have accounts with multiple bookmakers to be able to take advantage of these offers
The most popular sports betting option is the if your team leads by x points or lead at half time etc you get you money back either as money back or bonus bets. These offers can help you have a profitable months betting because I think everyone knows how often their team has led before tiring away for a hopeless loss. These can vary drastically from in AFL 15 points up, 20 points up, 24 points up, so be sure that you check out the promo pages for your betting sites each week to find out what they are offering, these offers are normally best at the start of the season because the bookie wants to have your business in that sport for the entire season so take advantage while you can.
Different states in Australia have different laws on promotions that sportsbooks can offer customers so really the only way to know what promotions you are eligible for is to have accounts with the bookmakers.
Information is King
The key to having an edge over the bookie is to have more or better information than them on that particular event. Most of the highly successful bettors in the US are ones that focus on college basketball rather than the NBA and the reason for this is that the bookies cannot spend the same amount of time researching these games and therefor can bring opportunities.
So if you’re an AFL bettor maybe look at your local leagues vfl, sanfl, wafl these can present larger edges to the bettor than in afl games, because if you spend an hour researching these games you will have a greater knowledge than the bookmaker. Some bookmakers even look at leagues below this you might be able to find out that they are resting their 5 best players for a bigger game coming up next week which is information that the bookmaker does not have access to, because they are more focused on the higher profile games.
Some places you can find some good information and stats
Afl.com.au
The afl website and phone app can give some great info similar in an easy to view interface however it does base their stats on averages. It does give good info that can be used with other stats sites to help you make the right bets
The main reasons I have the afl is to watch the afl games live but also to get the up to date stats ingame to keep on track of my current bets to know the disposals and goals scored by whom.
Afltables.com
This site has an amazing number of stats for every aspect of afl games. The interface is not very advanced or easy to use but is super in depth. You can look at the season as a whole or individual matches. They have the individual player scores as well as key indicators like time of goals kicked.
Ladbrokes infohub
On the Ladbrokes phone app, you can turn your phone to the side to bring up the infohub. This feature lets you look at key stats like the recent win loss record, the frequency that a team wins the line bet or the over/under total points scored. The issue with using this as your only source of information is that it is run by a bookmaker so they may only give you the information that they want you to know and don’t tell you what the line was at the time that it judges the win or loss record. It does however give very important indicators that directly relate to bets that you may want.
If you do not have a Ladbrokes account sign up here
Averages Aren’t Everything
Averages on certain stats are not the only thing you should look at.
When looking at a player getting 30+ disposals the average can deceive you into thinking that an outcome is ore likely than it actually is. If a player gets 40 disposals 2 weeks and 20 disposals the other 2 weeks, their average disposals would be 30 but you would need to make sure you are getting odds of more than $2 to make this a profitable bet.
Start Small
Starting with small bets is so important because you are going to make so many mistakes that you eventually will learn from. Most of the sportsbooks have minimum bets of $1 and some can be even lower to test out your betting skills. You need to know your limits but unless you have had great success then starting with smaller bets is the best option. If you are testing out betting on a new market or are testing out a tipping service then betting small can let you know how these tips are going without risking all of your bankroll.
Don’t bet with emotion
I’m a kangaroos supporter in the AFL so I know a thing or two about not betting on my team. If you do want to bet on your favourite team try as much as possible to be impartial and non-bias.
Maybe look at different markets within the game this can be better than choosing a team outright. Or look at the points markets, 30 or more disposals markets etc.
Sure if you are just betting for a bit of fun you could certainly bet on your favourite team but over the long term betting with a bias for your favourite team. If you are looking to make money consistently on AFL betting them maybe just stay away from betting on games including your team and watch those games just for the love of the game or team instead.
Quality Not Quantity
Another commonly told but often overlooked. You have to make sure you are betting on games or events you think you have an edge you do not have to bet on every game. If you like me choose to have a bet to have more drama/enjoyment from the game then find a market that you think you have an edge. The bookmakers have hundreds of thousands of markets to worry about they cannot be experts in all of them. If you cannot find a profitable winner of a match then look at the total points market or the 2nd half market.
The bookies use algorithms and other modes to make their odds. Is it raining heavily or the wind has just picked up to huge numbers and the market for the total points hasn’t gone down since yesterday? Maybe look into that instead, look at how the teams have played in the wet or the wind.
Value Not Winners
Everyone wants a winner but the reality is the only way for you to make money betting on sports or anything else is to get odds that are better than the probability of the event occurring.
A sure thing like a 1.01 favourite can still be beaten, anything can happen and if you lose once out of even 90 bets then you’re a loser so why do it. If you think both teams have a 50% chance of winning then only bet on one of them if the odds are greater than $2.
Record All Bets
This is boring but essential! Keeping records keeps you to account of the bets you have made and
the markets you are losing on. Or lets you know that you shouldn’t always bet on your favourite
team. It makes you find mistakes but also importantly find your successes.
Make a spreadsheet or even write if down on a piece of paper. It WILL save you money I cannot say how much but from personal experiences when I keep records of my bets it keeps me from making really stupid bets before I do it or lets me know next time do not do it.
Find Your Markets
There are 100’s of markets to choose from so you should investigate which markets work best for you. Along with keeping records of your bets you can look at which markets you have the most success in and then just focus on those.
The most common markets are:
Head to head
First Goal Scorer
Total Game Points
Player to Get Most Disposals
Player to Kick Most Goals
First To X number of Points
Quarter by Quarter Winner
Time Of First Goal Kicked
Line betting
(line betting is betting not on just the team to win but on the points difference between the two teams, if Geelong are -18.5 then Geelong must win by 19 or more points for your bet to win or if Hawthorn are +17.5 that means that they only need to lose by less than 17 points. Line points can be different between bookies so again its best to shop around one sportsbook might offer a line of -18.5 while another might offer -14.5 which can make a big difference on your chance of winning that bet. Also different sports betting sites will have different odds on their line markets from 1.85-1.95. For More info look at our post on different AFL markets and what they mean.)
Football Tipping is Different Than AFL betting
If you look in the paper on the weekend or afl shows they will have a tipping competition but this is very different than betting tips. Sure you will do better at tipping the 1.20 favourite than the $4 underdog but does the 1.20 favourite have a greater than 80% chance of winning? If the $4 underdog you think has a 30% chance of winning then that should be the team you bet on but not necessarily the team that you choose in your tipping competitions.
Paid tips vs Free Tips
There are a few paid services that you can be a part of but in no way is this a guaranteed success. But it is very unlikely that someone who is very successful is going to give tips away for free. You can definitely use free tips but use them as a reference point and see if there is some consistency with other people tips to find what the probability of your outcome occurring.
Free tips are given away by most bookies but again can these really be reliable or are they just giving you these tips because they need more people to bet on that team to make their book profitable.
But if you want some free tips the one that in personally would choose is PUNTR who are a Facebook group with a good group of members that also will offer their own tips where others can comment on to give you a good idea on how many like that tip.
The best and most popular paid service that I have found is championbets.com.au
They are trusted tipsters that have been around since 2006 they are professional and have realistic expectations of what results you can achieve and have a history that can be proved that they are successful.
They already have over 20,000 members so you know they are not around to just take your money and run. They have an apple and android apps that can give you push notifications when a tip first comes out so you can get on before the prices change
